SmartFeedSmartFeed          

Porsche Hangout


WELCOME - YOU ARE CURRENTLY VIEWING 419EATER AS A GUEST

By joining our community you will have the ability to post topics and access other forums reserved for members. Registration is quick, simple and absolutely free. Join our community today by clicking here.

ScamWarners.com - Internet Anti-Fraud Center - now open!


 A pitiful outlook for scammers

View next topic
View previous topic
 
Post new topicReply to topic
Author Message
419pwnter
Hello I'm New here!


Joined: 15 Aug 2008
Posts: 3


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:08 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

An interesting research paper has been recently released regarding phishing (and it very much applies to 419 scams equally).

http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/cormac/Papers/PhishingAsTragedy.pdf

A quick summary:
There is a finite amount of money which can be scammed (say, a success rate of 5% times everyone who has email access.)

Since there is no barrier to entry, more scammers turn to scamming, thus each scammer takes a smaller slice of the pie. So far, this is just market economics.

Now the tragedy comes in because every time the scammer is successful, the victim has less money (or in some occassions, may become wiser), so the actual finite pool is decreasing.

If scammers keep taking "fish" out of the water faster than the natural replenishment rate (new victims connecting online), this "natural resource" will crash like any other overharvested resource.

Unfortunately, since scammers don't have any good licensing program to ration the catch and prevent overfishing of victims. (In fact, each scammer works for his/her own selfish ends, and will just cast out wider and wider nets as the resource runs low.) This further exacerbates the problem, and they are going to die of their own success.
View user's profileSend private message
bigmac
Hello I'm New here!


Joined: 19 Dec 2008
Posts: 14
Location: UK sometimes


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:26 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

But it does mean that we will get more lads trying to follow our leads and increase our fun in baiting them!!
View user's profileSend private message
JMRazor
Moderator


Joined: 03 Mar 2006
Posts: 7101
Location: Yes


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:39 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

419pwnter wrote:

Unfortunately, since scammers don't have any good licensing program to ration the catch and prevent overfishing of victims. (In fact, each scammer works for his/her own selfish ends, and will just cast out wider and wider nets as the resource runs low.) This further exacerbates the problem, and they are going to die of their own success.


Why is this "unfortunate"?

_________________
<a href="http://forum.419eater.com/forum/donate.php">|A 100% RISKY FREE PROPOSITION| </a> |PLEASE VISIT SCAMWARNERS| |READ OUR F.A.Q.| |WHEN IN DOUBT CLICK ON THIS|

____________________________ pony Pretty Prancing Pink Pony Master pony _____________________________

Tattoo Tattoo Tattoo
Pith Helmet Pith Helmet Pith Helmet Pith Helmet Easter Egg 2013
Closed lad accounts x 43
Mortar x 16
Sand Timer x 3
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mail
419pwnter
Hello I'm New here!


Joined: 15 Aug 2008
Posts: 3


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:42 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

JMRazor wrote:
Why is this "unfortunate"?


It's a sarcastic unfortunate, to keep in line with the title of the paper.... what a tragedy Smile
View user's profileSend private message
JMRazor
Moderator


Joined: 03 Mar 2006
Posts: 7101
Location: Yes


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Got it, thanks.

_________________
<a href="http://forum.419eater.com/forum/donate.php">|A 100% RISKY FREE PROPOSITION| </a> |PLEASE VISIT SCAMWARNERS| |READ OUR F.A.Q.| |WHEN IN DOUBT CLICK ON THIS|

____________________________ pony Pretty Prancing Pink Pony Master pony _____________________________

Tattoo Tattoo Tattoo
Pith Helmet Pith Helmet Pith Helmet Pith Helmet Easter Egg 2013
Closed lad accounts x 43
Mortar x 16
Sand Timer x 3
View user's profileSend private messageSend e-mail
bill2
Baiting Guru


Joined: 10 Sep 2006
Posts: 5496
Location: Yeah who can tell me where I am?


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 8:54 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

But new seas of fresh fish are opening up elsewhere in the world, so overfishing is still far away Sad
They might even start ignoring us in the end as we don't type Chinese Laughing

_________________
I don't do bling, I just do lads Evil or Very Mad
View user's profileSend private message
Connie L. Gus
Moderator


Joined: 07 Oct 2005
Posts: 6195
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:20 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

No new fish in the sea? I helped set up a computer lab in a Senior Citizen's Center and have taught there. These fish have never heard of phishing or 419 scams. Yes, this is anecdotal but I positive that the number of users on line is increasing.

_________________
Mortar x8 Purple Flower Easter Egg
LISTEN TO ME WHAT DO YOU TAKE ME FOR ONE OF THOSE CHEAP CROOK OR WHAT -tobi donito
Closed lad accounts-a few, United Nations
LISTEN I CAN NOT TAKE YOUR SHIT ANY LONGER WE HAVE WHROTE A PETITION AGAINST YOU TO THE FBI WITH ALL OUR EVIDENCE YOU ARE INTO PROSTITUTION,DRUG DEALING, FORGERY, CREDIT CARDS FORGRY WESTEN UNION FALSIFICATION,DRUGING MEN,COMMETING MURDER, STEALING, DRUNCARD, ALL THIS WE HAVE THE EVIDENCE TO PROOF OUR CASE AGAINST YOU.-Johnson Hill
SafariI am not finding it any funny...Henry A., Lagos, Nigeria to Cotonou, Benin, WIMPed
Safari I am stranderd. Henry A. Lagos to Accra, WIMPed for 67 days.
View user's profileSend private message
419pwnter
Hello I'm New here!


Joined: 15 Aug 2008
Posts: 3


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:58 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

What I have typed above is just a very light summary. There are detailed projections on internet traffic and new sources of "fish" coming online in the paper itself, and how this is not remotely sufficient to prevent the demise of the scammers.

Two quotes of interest:

"Since Gartner [13] estimates that 66% of the population had received phishing emails it is hard to argue that there's a large uncontacted population that represents a profitable opportunity."
[13] Gartner. Phishing Survey. 2006. http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=498245.

"Another amusing example of the trajectory of a quotable but poorly sourced claim (that internet traffic was doubling every hundred days)
is examined by Odlyzko [6]."
[6] A. Odlyzko. Internet traffic growth: Sources and implications. Proceedings of SPIE, 2003.
View user's profileSend private message
Roycropper
Undead Moderator


Joined: 14 Nov 2005
Posts: 7991
Location: Luxury Coffin


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:08 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Some people get scammed over and over again, they must like the excitement and anticipation of always being about to become fabulously rich.

Maybe the lads should use nets with bigger holes in the mesh.

_________________
the European Union has bounced on our freckles
COULD YOU IMAGINE WHAT HAPPENED WHEN I WENT TO THE BANK
our Agent is Completely broke, pocketless and stranded
I WLL SEND AN AFRICA WITCH TO ATTACH YOU BASTARD
You go die like bird
i started shouting HALLELUJAGOBBLE but none of them notice me immediately police arrested me due to the shouting
f*ck u asshole ur damn mother will loose ur fcuking skull brain ur brain is nothing to compare with rat f*ck ur u
MY FRIEND ALEX WAS DETAINED IN POLICE STATION
I am not happy due to the question i answered at money office. Let me tell you do not play with me ok.
Pith Helmet 10
x4 United Kingdom New Zealand Mortar Closed lad accounts Sand Timer 6Yrs Tattoo x6 Flying Monkey
View user's profileSend private message
bill2
Baiting Guru


Joined: 10 Sep 2006
Posts: 5496
Location: Yeah who can tell me where I am?


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:35 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

But it's all the same, most money of scammers is spend in the country on real estate or on western products to boost our economy a bit and bring the money back home, just a secondary money flow that helps us to stay a float Laughing

_________________
I don't do bling, I just do lads Evil or Very Mad
View user's profileSend private message
Slightlyoutofit
Baiting Guru


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Posts: 14312
Location: Foraging for Nuts.


PostPosted: Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:09 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Like others have said, new markets are opening up that negate any projected reduction. Then you have the fact that the lads are pretty resourceful and will adapt their methods to deal with any supposed famine. A lot also rests on the idea that more people will turn to scamming.
Way too many variables to make the claim that scammers will soon become a dying breed.

419 is with us for a long time yet.

_________________
Star pony pony pony Nurse Nastys Audi TT Purple Flower Whip
Safari Jolly Roger Mortar Closed lad accounts Cellphone United Kingdom

God will see you true for all this you have done to me you bastard. - Collins Kalu
MAY THE HAND THAT TYPE ON KEYBORD BECOME STRICKEN AND TRANSMIT VIRUS TO YOU ENTIRE BODY. - Dr Linda Akeem
oh what a mess its time cabbage punks like u will be expose for trully what they are. - David Cole
View user's profileSend private messageYahoo MessengerSkype Name
Display posts from previous:      
Post new topicReply to topic


 Jump to:   



View next topic
View previous topic
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



** Find out information about your IP address **


All Content © 2003 - 419Eater.com
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group :S5: FI Theme :: All times are GMT