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 Lad success rate vs. 10 yrs ago, etc

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StevenCowberry
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Joined: 25 Oct 2011
Posts: 22


PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:09 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Seems like about 10 years ago is when these 419 things started really flying off the shelves.

Now theres likely alot more scammers vs 10 years ago thanks to ease of internet..the word spreading that this could be a money maker...etc

but surely people have become more educated over the years (hopefully) as these stories have hit the news, and attention to fraud prevention has gone up over the decade, etc.

Do you think the scam game is busier than ever? What do you think these guys success rates are compared to say 2002-2005?
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BRUIN
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:08 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Keep in mind that a lot more people have access to the internet now than 10 years ago, which equals a much larger pool of potential victims. Ten years ago, relatively few people in the 3rd world had internet access. A lot more elderly and poor in 1st world countries have access now than in 2003. So, there are not only more potential victims, but there are more potential victims from especially vulnerable backgrounds.

Keep in mind that you hear about only a minute fraction of people who get scammed. It only turns up on the local press if some one goes to the police and reports an especially large sum was lost. Most victims do not notify anyone, so we have no idea how many victims lose how much money in a given year.

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BearSeason
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Joined: 19 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:31 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Plus, the lads have adapted to the changing climate. The old son of the deposed King of Nigeria scam has become so well-known in the West. But when was the last time anyone saw that one in their catcher?

Instead, scammers are turning to romance scams, job scams, and overpayment scams. All of these are far more sophisticated and less well known in the West.

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StevenCowberry
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Joined: 25 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:07 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

good points. it would seem the game is busier than ever.
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Alice Liddell
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 3:53 am Reply with quoteBack to top

From what I have read in the last 5 months, it’s increasing every year. The numbers I saw for 2011 estimate (based only on reported victims) about $2.6 billion annually are scammed from individuals, and about $25 billion annually from businesses. I think the reasons posted above are exactly why, that more victims and more scammers have internet access. It’s bad enough that individuals are losing their life savings, homes, and even lives over it, but when billions are taken every year from businesses all over the world, that affects whole economies. When I learned that, that was what sealed the deal for me to start baiting.

I see some big changes coming to Africa, bad changes. I have been pondering the last week or so about how this would affect scamming, and I am thinking that it’s going to increase even more. There is a new colonization coming to Africa, the West is going to wrestle control of the resources away from the Chinese, and in the chaos the criminals will be able to flourish. This goes back decades; during the 1950s, the Soviet Union geophysicists working for oil companies came up with new theory on the origin of oil, called the abiotic theory. They believe it is not a fossil fuel, not made from dinosaurs, but is actually a substance formed at the time the Earth formed. The West has religiously followed the fossil fuel theory (proposed initially by a single geophysicist working for BP), and because of the Cold War the Russian theory wasn’t known by the West until the 1990s. The Russians have been drilling for oil, successfully, where none should be, so their theory appears to be right. This also blows the ‘peak oil’ theory out of the water, based on this Russian theory we still have hundreds of years worth of oil left; much of it in Africa. However, during the 1990s, Russia offered to share this technique with the West, and was laughed at. We believed oil was running out (again, based on one man’s theory) and that the last of it was in the Middle East. We focused our sights there, meanwhile Russia, who had the knowledge of the vast untapped African sources, teamed up with China, who had the funds to take it, and since then Africa has been taken control of by the Chinese. All of a sudden, the West realized in the last decade that we shouldn’t have ignored Russia’s theory, and now there is a mad rush to resecure the West’s position as top dog of the world. If I had any doubts about it a few years ago when I first learned of it, they are gone now. The events of the last 2 years have pretty much followed the exact script I saw put forth. The Kony2012 phenom, which used 6 year old footage of Joseph Kony as an imminent threat to the East African region, enraged the Ugandans who saw it. They ended up rioting, they found the video to be a shameless way of enticing young Westerners to demand we ‘go into Africa to liberate the people’. Besides the fact that Kony was believed to be dead anyway, there have been hundreds of war lords allowed to rampage for decades with no interference from us. The people of Africa can see with their own eyes the sham. The countries that we are currently hunting for Kony in (Uganda, CHAD, Congo) happen to be so dense in resources, you can see it from the moon. It shows up as a dark green crescent, and it’s FULL of things we want. Then there is the Arab Spring, which removed all the governments of North Africa who were still in the way of the West coming back there. We formed AFRICOM (African Command) and Egypt, Tunisia, and Lybia said ‘don’t even try it’. Now they are deposed or dead, and those countries have Islamic regimes who will probably further terrorize the people; and they just happen to be our ‘enemy du jour’, it will be easy to sell the need for our involvement. As brutal as those countries’ dictators were, the Islamic regimes are even more so, and the people of those countries are already revolting against those governments. Many say they regret voting them into power. The recent liberation of Mali is a serious thing to look at; it’s our way in to Africa. The conflict has already started affecting parts of West Africa, and we will start seeing our new enemy, AQIM (al Queda in Mehgreb…the new boogeyman) moving further into the continent. All of this has been manufactured, used, and presented just right to set a path for recolonization, one that will be quieter than we are used to, but will also be more bloody that before. We now have the ability to fight wars with drones, we barely need boots on the ground, but I think boots will come. They won’t likely be the official military of any Western nation though, they will be PMCs (private military contractors). Remember Blackwater (now called XE)? That’s who will do the dirty work, companies like them from the big players of the western nations will send in their own PMCs to clear the way for the drilling and mining. This is probably going allow many African countries to fall into chaos, and criminals, like scammers, will become even more influential than before. The countries we are used to seeing these scams from (Nigeria, Benin, Ivory Coast, ect) are pretty precarious as far as their stability goes, and can easily fall into full on collapse under the right circumstances. I definitely see the West’s desperation to keep the mistake of ignoring Russia’s oil theory from allowing China to become the next global Superpower as a pretty good set of the right circumstances. Plus, there are all those vast fields of minerals we use for our new technologies, especially in Eastern Africa. It’s a full on resource grab, and it’s going to be brutal.

Let’s hope I’m completely wrong. This is all based on many various articles and essays I have read over the years, mostly not on the mainstream. The independent press/analysts/ect have been wrong before, very wrong. What concerns me is that I am seeing events play out just as they were predicted to, and this is not coming from one source; it’s been many sources over the years. It is only going to mean more misery for the innocent people in Africa, the people there who will benefit from it will only be the criminals, whether scammers or otherwise. When those countries fall into chaos, the criminals will have a lot more influence than now, and the governments will be unable to deter the criminals from their crimes.

Either way, based on the numbers I have read, scamming has been rising steadily every year and at shocking levels. I think we are going to be baiting for many years to come.

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4X1X9
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Joined: 17 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:22 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Ultrascan research shows an increase from 2006-2009

http://www.ultrascan-agi.com/public_html/html/public_research_reports.html
Estimated losses to 419
2006 - $3.8 billion
2007 - $4.3 billion
2009 - $9.3 billion

As recession bites across the world more people want to believe that some good fortune is coming their way and are therefore more susceptible to falling for scams.

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Alice Liddell
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Joined: 29 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 7:25 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I saw some wrong numbers for 2011, then, they said $2.5 billion for individuals. But that was globally, is ultrascan for the gobal numbers? Do they count businesses?

I think your right too about the recession making people more susceptable to being scammed. People are desperate. Let's just hope the global economy evens itself out (I'm not holding my breath though) and that we don't end up tearing up Africa trying to get more resources. It will make a perfect situation for scamming to just explode. But I find it hard to believe it can get any worse, based on the numbers it's already sky high.

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I know that the internet has been grossly abused, but with due respect, trust and humility, I come to you with this proposal- random 419
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StevenCowberry
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Joined: 25 Oct 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 8:50 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

i also noticed that the lads have been getting lazier as a whole. maybe baiting is having an effect. i used to be able to get 8-10 emails out of a lad before we even got to the specifics of the money transfer. now its cut and paste, no explanation, just get your ass to western union to pay me.

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IM_Dumm
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:20 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

To my observation two things have changed since I started baiting many years ago (aside from the volumes):

1) The lads have lots more resources in which to find victims. Love interest / dating websites, Facebook and other social media, etc. In the old days it was pretty much limited to emails. Now lads reach out to people in many different ways.

2) Baiting has become much more sophisticated. I can remember when no one spoke on the phone to a lad, now it seems fairly routine. When I started baiting it was pretty much limited to emails. Now baiters have Facebook accounts, use IM, telephones, etc. Much more varied than in "the old days".

Sadly, even with all the resources available on-line for people to research the validity of what scammers say there is still a huge pool of potential victims. Many just want to believe what the scammer is telling them (especially love lads) and don''t pay attention to warning signs.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 9:57 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Quote:
lads have been getting lazier as a whole


This is a fact. I have had one or 2 hit me up on first or second chats. Cachuma's lazy boy said that he would have me at MG in 3 days.

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