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 Bewildering format - Football match fixing.

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sunshine
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:22 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Got the same... don't understand what he means by:

1.Schalke 04 -0.5/1
2.Troyes -0.5/1
3.Chateauroux -0.5

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MarcusA
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:33 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

yeah, how can he fail? Confused I'm just gonna ask to make schalke lose..
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spot
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:38 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I got the same.

The numbers look like they are from the Asian Handicap Betting System. - I never could explain it, but I'm sure someone else can.

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Last edited by spot on Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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bravo95
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:40 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Isn't that the point spread? I'm used to real football so it looks more like Tampa bay -7 vs Washington meaning to cover the spread Washington has to win by 7 or more. If Washington won by 3 you would loose the bet if you bet the spread.

Those numbers look weird to me but Soccar is such a low scoring game that may make sense.

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manbiteslion
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 1:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

sunshine wrote:
Got the same... don't understand what he means by:

1.Schalke 04 -0.5/1
2.Troyes -0.5/1
3.Chateauroux -0.5


I'm guessing it's a non-western way of stating odds (here in the UK all odds are given as 7/2, etc)...

Decimal presentation

Taking an event with a 1 in 5 probability of occurring (i.e. a probability of 1/5, 0.2 or 20%), then the odds are 0.2 / (1 − 0.2) = 0.2 / 0.8 = 0.25. This figure (0.25) represents the monetary stake necessary for a person to gain one (monetary) unit on a successful wager when offered fair odds. This may be scaled up by any convenient factor to give whole number values. For example, if a stake of 0.25 wins 1 unit, then scaling by a factor of four means a stake of 1 wins 4 units.

Ratio presentation

Fixed odds gambling tends to represent the probability as fractional odds, and excludes the stake. For example 0.20 is represented as "4 to 1 against" (written as 4-1, 4:1, or 4/1), since there are five outcomes of which four are unsuccessful. Thus the stake returned must be added to the odds to compute the entire return of a successful bet. In craps the payout would be represented as "5 for 1", and in moneyline odds as +400 representing the gain from a 100 stake.

By contrast, for an event with a 4 in 5 probability of occurring (i.e. a probability of 4/5, 0.8 or 80%), then the odds are 0.8 / (1 − 0.8) = 4. If one bets 4 units at these odds and the event occurs, one receives back 1 unit plus the original unit 4 units stake. This would be presented in fractional odds of "4 to 1 on'' (written as 1/4 or 1–4), in decimal odds as 1.25 to include the returned stake, in craps as "5 for 4", and in moneyline odds as −400 representing the stake necessary to gain 100.

Fixed odds are not necessarily presented in the lowest possible terms; if there is a pattern of odds of 5–4, 7–4 and so on, odds which are mathematically 3–2 are more easily compared if expressed in the mathematically equivalent form 6–4. Similarly, 10–3 may be stated as 100–30.

(thanks Wikipedia!)

That means, I assume, the match odds are 'evens' - which would tie in with the scheme being a tree of 50/50 splits/odds.

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wowwow
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 3:25 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

bravo95 wrote:
You have asked very good questions. I will try to answer as best I can.

Bravo 'bravo' you made me laugh. Nice to know I'm not the only puzzled Brit here, if even the yanks are confused about their own game.

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p-rat1976
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:42 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I got the same thing. I caught him online on gmail this morning, but he wasn't very talkative. He said he was working on it and then sent me the email with the confusing betting lines.
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TheDane
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 8:28 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I got this reply: Shocked

Quote:
tried to fix a football match between Viborg and Fyn,but failed .

I have any Team for make money .(5 November 2010)

1.Schalke 04 -0.5/1
2.Troyes -0.5/1
3.Chateauroux -0.5

i'll send to you again on 10 Nov 2010.

please keep secret .


EDIT: Missed that it was posted before. Guess it's a coincidence, then. Wink

Does he know my nationality, or is this a coincidence?!? Shocked

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Hadaway
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 8:37 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

@ manbiteslion, I think with uk online gambling odds are sometimes given as a decimal instead of a fraction. His mail seems to have mixed the two and doesn't state what outcomes he is betting on. It seems you were all right to suspend judgement on his intelligence.

Looking at the teams Schalke 04 are second bottom of the Bundesliga after 10 games and play at home to St Pauli, who are 13th. Troyes are 5th in Ligue 2 and play at home to Istres who are second bottom. Chateroux are 8th in Ligue 2 and play at home to Grenoble who are bottom.

Looking at the Ladbrokes site you can chose odds to be displayed as fractional, decimal or American.

Chateauroux are W 8/11 (1.72) (-137), D 21/10 (3.10) (+210) , L 7/2 (4.5) (+350).
Troyes are W 4/6 (1.66) (-150), D 21/10 (3.10) (+210) , L 4/1 (5.0) (+400).
Shalke 04 are W 8/13 (1.61) (-162) , D 11/4 (3.75) (+275), L 9/2 (5.5) (+450).

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Football/French/Ligue-2Football/French/Ligue-2-s76
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Hadaway
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:17 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Wel Schalke 04 won 3-0, Troyes lost 0-1, and Chateauroux won 4-3. Though I don't know what this means as I can't understand what he predicted.
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MarcusA
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 3:16 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Guess I'll be betting the house on ST. Mirren.. Razz
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gerald.fird
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 4:38 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I just got that exact email.

Originally I asked him to fix Bolton v. Tottenham. Bolton won 4-2. He never cared though.

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suckemsillysheri
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 10:56 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

here is the response I received:

Quote:
HI' Moe Fugger How are you?
Who i am ?
I'm not God from heaven but i know anything.
because i work in Big casino. I need to help anybody.
pls keep secret for me ,I must die if you tell.


Don't ask me everything
Pls wait and see.


SCOTLAND PREMIER<10 Nov 2010>


Bet on DUNDEE UNITED -0.5/1.0 <asian handicap>




Next match on 12 Nov , I will send to you on 11 Nov ,pls check your mail.


Regard
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and every day i have any team for make money if you care I will send to you


3-5 team per day.

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TheDane
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 06, 2010 11:31 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

^^^ Got that one too. It's getting weirder and weirder.

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MarcusA
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 6:05 am Reply with quoteBack to top

So he finally split his victims up, still don't understand his first mail though since he only got 2 correct lol dah well
I wonder what he'll do when they draw
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northface
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:06 am Reply with quoteBack to top

sunshine wrote:
Got the same... don't understand what he means by:

1.Schalke 04 -0.5/1
2.Troyes -0.5/1
3.Chateauroux -0.5


Hello, I'm new around here but I'm glad to explain how 'Asian handicap' rules works.

1. Schalke won 3-0
2. Troyes lost 0-1
3. Chateauroux 1-0

The +/- basically shows which is the favorite and underdog. A good team would get a '-' handicap to the final scoreline to compensate for betting against lesser opponents.

The -0.5/1.0 handicap can be literally called a -0.75 goal handicap sometimes by other bookmakers. This works when the Favorite team wins by 1 goal margin, you would only win half of your stake, multiplied by the game odds of course. Assume Schake won 1-0 and game odds was 2.0, +100, even money, whatever you call it. Your stakes were $100 you would only win $50, thus getting $150 back.

As for +/- 0.5 goals, it would be pretty straight forward. Chateauroux bet would have been a goner if they drew or lost the game, since you have to apply -0.5 to the final score.

For scores livescore.com has possibly the quickest results and least advertising trash compared to most football sites.
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northface
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 10:08 am Reply with quoteBack to top

MarcusA wrote:
So he finally split his victims up, still don't understand his first mail though since he only got 2 correct lol dah well
I wonder what he'll do when they draw


Well he still got 2 out of 3, if you bet $1000 on every game you would be up $1000, imagine people that actually worships this guy Twisted Evil


I'm a gambling person this thread is getting interesting.
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gerald.fird
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 11:49 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Welcome northface!

Yes, this thread is getting more and more interesting.


Just don't bet on anything Wink

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MarcusA
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 07, 2010 2:38 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

northface wrote:
MarcusA wrote:
So he finally split his victims up, still don't understand his first mail though since he only got 2 correct lol dah well
I wonder what he'll do when they draw


Well he still got 2 out of 3, if you bet $1000 on every game you would be up $1000, imagine people that actually worships this guy Twisted Evil


I'm a gambling person this thread is getting interesting.


Haha true I guess, but I need to be able to trust that his fixings shall be fixed Razz I'm betting the house after all
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:44 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

evil_sheep wrote:
Quote:
...

I am Mr. Knowing And I looking for ten person on Earth for tell anything
about future.

You're ten person in this world
...

I can fix a football match 4-5 times per month. I will tell you. please keep
The secret for yourself.
next match ( 5 November 2010) I'll send mail to you on 4 November 2010....
..,..


"...and I was all like.... WTF?!?!"

I like where this might be heading...

...


this looks like a variation of the very old alfred hitchcock story

does not work well with soccer due to ties
but would work well with nfl or nba games

select 2^n people (n>17 - preferably a little more)
(70-80,000 total to start would be perfect to allow for some to drop out for whatever reason)

tell each of them that you will give them a free pick for an nfl winner next week and the next few weeks
all free. tell them if they keep betting their winnings they can double their money each week and make 12M by the end of the season if they only start with $100

clearly you need to be targetting known nfl bettors

give half of them one team and half of them the other - every week !! half of them will win !

after one week you have half who saw you were right

repeat with them on week 2
half get one team half the other

now you have 1/4 that saw you win twice
(still say 20,000 victims to work)

by now they should start betting even if they ignored the first two

repeat for next 6 weeks or so
you are now down to 1/128 that have seen you pick
an amazing 8 in a row (include at least one or two games early on that would be upsets to make this more convincing)

now tell them that you will give them the next weeks winner if they pay a very modest sum
you should get many eager to pay up
then repeat the next week again with a modest sum

tell the last several that you will give them the superbowl winner for a million dollars ( perhaps more if they have been betting all along as they would have made several million if they re-bet the winnings every week)

they have to be believers and will come up with the money somehow even if they had not been betting all along. take whatevery they offer and say they can pay the rest from the SB winnings. you should also be getting a couple of mil from the SB winner who shuold be glad to pay it !!

one lucky guy will make 12M less what he paid you

the rest are losers

but you walk away with a few million for just sending emails

and that one guy thinks you can predict the future

Note: there were no playoffs back then when hitchcock had his tv mystery show
and the season was less than 16 games

but you should get the idea
if you can get >2^12 bettors (4096 or more)
that could still net you a million
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spot
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 8:19 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I can tell you that if this 'scammer' e-mailed any significant amount of people, his e-dress would be appearing on more than two websites.

However, if he chose a guest book that is only set up for baiters then that would be a totally different matter ................

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edskar j hoover
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 09, 2010 10:42 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

of course that is a risk.

You could use 2^n fake emails to avoid detection.

The bigger problem is ensuring that two victims do not talk to each other and discover what is happening.

Must warn them to keep it secret and never discuss anythign with anybody.

Email is riskier. In the old snailmail days you could spread them out around the country avoiding the same cities or at least minimising the number in a major MSA.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 3:06 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I thought it was spread betting ie goal difference... he has picked three sitters and hope you will pay for the next batch of information.

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PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 3:31 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

The spread doesn't really matter for nfl/nba. Soccer aka association futbol could be iffy to do this scam.

Half teams will beat the spread , half won't.
Ties are rare and are a wash and don't count so you may lose a week to do the doubling. But with 16 games plus playoffs and the SB you have plenty of time. More likely not enough suckers to play it all the way to the end.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 10, 2010 9:52 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

Dundee lose 2-1 to St Mirren. Shocking performance from the lad.
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