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altais
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Joined: 06 Dec 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 3:01 am Reply with quoteBack to top

Hi again, everyone. I'm not dead! Anyway, here's a topic that came up on a non-baiting related forum. I pressed the guy for as much information he had about this, and this is the most I could get. I haven't looked into it myself. Anyone feel like doing some digging?

first, a week ago i got some survey type call, where they mentioned something about a change in betting laws.

then today i get another call telling me about this

in short, someone spent 10 mins explaining to an engineering student telling me that money will probably be pretty tight while i'm studying, and that he could help me make $1000 per week.

he then told me how they had 'a system' to always make money betting on horses, by not backing winners, but losers. mathematics says that if there's an average of 20 horses in a race, that the average horse will lose 95% of the time, so backing a horse to lose means you get about 50 to 1 odds inyour favour. this is how bookmakers stay in business, because by accepting bets on the winner they are in effect betting on the loser.

'the system' is a computer programs that 'tracks every single bet made on a race' to determine which horse is most likely to lose, then puts money on it to not win (to someone who is accepting these bets and not noticing the millions of dollars they are losing, i guess). this program has about 90% accuracy.

for some reason, this program requires me to be sitting in front of it while it works, but while i'm sitting there i should make an average of $350 an hour.

but i don't have to take his word for it, i can watch a demo of the program in action if i want.

most people make about $60k from this (before what? they get sick of $350 an hour?) to reassure the nagging voice in my head asking "but why are they offering this to me if they could be making money off it themselves?" he told me 'the easy payment plan'. because as a uni student a spare $13 900 might be a little hard to find, and i don't deserve to miss out on this just because i'm poor. $8900 up front, then another $5k in 12 months, unless i make less than $55k on it in which case they forget about the $5k.

initially i thought it was some political poll wanting my opinion on being able to bet on a losing horse :/
if it is an arbitage betting system, a) why would they share it? b) why not describe it as such?

the contact info on the page:


what other info could i get that would be helpful? i assume the guy is going to call again :/ "sorry, i'm busy right now, could you give me your number and i'll call you back?"?

assuming the software actually does what they say, or even if it just picks a horse with long odds to place a bet on, are they actually doing anything illegal by selling it, in the same way selling lotto tickets is legal? if people don't know how odds work and buy it is the seller at fault?

mod edit - Only masked the important stuff - NN

Edit: Sorry, I just masked everything just to be safe. Since this is taken verbatim from another forum, I wanted to make sure that no one could google it and find it here too.
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Master
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Joined: 29 Jan 2008
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Location: AU


PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:18 am Reply with quoteBack to top

http://honestconman.blogspot.com/2008/08/sniper-betting-system.html


http://www.freelancer-job.com/blog/2008/04/08/clone-flash-website-by-ontheprowl/


just by googling the web site

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crashhoot
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:33 am Reply with quoteBack to top

@altais, this looks to me like a version of the old 50-50 scam. I'll post details if anyone is interested.

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Catcher In The Lie
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Joined: 22 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:42 am Reply with quoteBack to top

^^^I think he's trying to use circular logic or something here:

Quote:
this is how bookmakers stay in business, because by accepting bets on the winner they are in effect betting on the loser


He is betting on the loser - but the loser he's betting on is the person who placed the bet (who has the 90% chance of losing), not the horses that lose.

Quote:
which horse is most likely to lose, then puts money on it to not win (to someone who is accepting these bets and not noticing the millions of dollars they are losing, i guess).


Of course bookies make money on the juice too, but what bookie would ever take that bet?

ETA I'll be interested to read Master's links Confused

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thud419
Baiting Guru


Joined: 04 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 10:08 am Reply with quoteBack to top

The bookies win because they arrange the odds. If they offer you 1:100 odds on a horse losing, then you need to win 99% of the time, or you will still lose money.

Quote:
$8900 up front, then another $5k in 12 months, unless i make less than $55k on it in which case they forget about the $5k.


Classic scam ploy. The price is $8900, which is too much to pay, but by talking about $13900, suddenly it looks like a good deal. The holiday clubs pull that one, double-glazing salesmen pull that one, and the lads do too.

Any time someone is pushing that hard to make a sale, I walk away. Good products do not need hard selling, and by-and-large, hard salesmen do poor customer service. In every trade of this type there is a fool, and the salesman thinks it is the customer.

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manbiteslion
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Joined: 12 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:00 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

I did the sums on this and even developed a system for it, so I know what I'm talking about for a change!

Betting against losing horses is a good ploy if the bookies margin has been eroded by track conditions/withdrawn nags, etc. The easy way to tell is to convert the odds to percentages (so 3/1 is 25%, 4/1 is 20% etc - odds exclude your returned stake so at 3/1 £1 wins you £3 plus your £1 back) and see what they add up to - usually around 150-250% (nice safe margin) but if there's a flurry of changing odds it may dip to 98% which is when you can bet your entire house on the race if you bet according to the inverse percentage ratios (guaranteed to win).

Bookies don't take bets on horses to lose - they're not stupid, it's their margin! Some websites allow individuals to place bets between them where you can lay odds and hope someone takes them.

Save your $13k - my handy ebook will just cost you $1997 Wink
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SlapHappy
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Joined: 15 May 2006
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 5:09 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

This website and the people involved are 100% scammers. Craig Duffy, the man behind this, has a very long history of secret method software scams. Follow some of the google links for the website, and his name, and also some of his associates. It would not surprise me if you paid the "advance fee" and never got the software at all. And even if something was shipped, it would not work. Refunds? Forgettaboutit.

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embalmer
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Joined: 03 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2009 5:48 pm Reply with quoteBack to top

@crashhoot

I'm always interested in learning how scams work.

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crashhoot
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Joined: 08 Aug 2004
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 2:38 am Reply with quoteBack to top

^^^ Pick any sport, baseball, football, soccer, whatever...
Send out 500,000 e-mails. In half, say Team A is going to win. In the other half, say Team B is going to win. After the game is over, send e-mails (about the next game on the scedule) to the half that you guessed correctly; again, half saying Team C, half saying Team D.
Lather, rinse, repeat...
Eventualy you'll have a few thousand e-mail addy's where you have predicted the winning team six or seven times in a row. Send an e-mail to these addy's asking for a hundred bucks for the name of the next winning team.
Even if only a small percentage fall for it, you'll clear several thousand dollars.

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