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Roycropper
Undead Moderator
Joined: 14 Nov 2005
Posts: 7993
Location: Luxury Coffin

Posted:
Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:15 am 

I have been asked to help calculatethe odds of a couple of football related games of chance.
the first is a game where there are 10 matches, for each you are asked to predict the possible outcome, win lose or draw. A prize is paid for 8,9 or 10 successful predictions.
What are the odds for each? I reckon the chance of getting 10 right is 1 in 3 to the power of 10, around 59,000. I may be wrong though, and am not sure about 8 or 9 correct.
Assume 50% of the money staked is paid out in prizes.
If the lucky winner gets £4052, can we estimate how many people played? As far as I can see, the results for any week aren't relavent, you still have a 1 in 3 chance of getting each result correct.
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The second game is where again you have 10 matches, and you predict the minute a goal is scored in a particular match. It doesnt matter which side scores, you predict whether there will be one or two goals, and what time out of the 90 minutes (forget injury time  bet Liverpool wish they could) they are scored.
You first pick one game out of the 10.
My friend thinks the odds of getting 1 goal right is 1 in 90, x 10 matches = 1 in 900, I'm not so sure. for a start, the odds are the same on the match you pick, whether there are 10 games or 1.
I think it's 1 in 90, times the odds of getting a goaless draw or more than 1 goal, which is unpredicatble. What do you think?
What if you ahve to predict 2 goals? (I think you multiply the odds together)
I reckon that unless you analyse results you can't predict the odds, as it depends on the result  there might not even be a goal. 
_________________ the European Union has bounced on our freckles
COULD YOU IMAGINE WHAT HAPPENED WHEN I WENT TO THE BANK
our Agent is Completely broke, pocketless and stranded
I WLL SEND AN AFRICA WITCH TO ATTACH YOU BASTARD
You go die like bird
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justjay
Baiting Guru
Joined: 22 Mar 2007
Posts: 2412
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Posted:
Thu Apr 24, 2008 1:29 pm 

the first
Quote: 
What are the odds for each? I reckon the chance of getting 10 right is 1 in 3 to the power of 10, around 59,000. I may be wrong though, and am not sure about 8 or 9 correct. 
I think:for 10 = 1 in 59049
for 9 = 1 in 19683
for 8 = 1 in 6561
Quote: 
Assume 50% of the money staked is paid out in prizes.
If the lucky winner gets £4052, can we estimate how many people played? 
Not really with just the info you give. Is that paying for 8, 9, & 10 correct (and at what rate of return) or just on 10 correct?
How much per bet?
If, only paying on 10 correct and at £1/bet place then probably 8104, unless 2 or more winners
__________
On the second
 Don't know enough about game to try calculating that, but I suspect that a large number of variables would be involved (I suppose, since you're talking £ that this isn't 'football' as known in US.) 
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Roycropper
Undead Moderator
Joined: 14 Nov 2005
Posts: 7993
Location: Luxury Coffin

Posted:
Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:20 pm 

I agree with your odds on the first game.
The payout on 8 or 9 is minimal, so I think we can discount it.
for the second game, I think the odds are 1 in 90, times 10, divided by the number of games with only one goal.
Where you have 2 get 2 goals right, it could be 1 in 90x90 x 10 / games with 2 goals. 
_________________ the European Union has bounced on our freckles
COULD YOU IMAGINE WHAT HAPPENED WHEN I WENT TO THE BANK
our Agent is Completely broke, pocketless and stranded
I WLL SEND AN AFRICA WITCH TO ATTACH YOU BASTARD
You go die like bird
i started shouting HALLELUJAGOBBLE but none of them notice me immediately police arrested me due to the shouting
f*ck u asshole ur damn mother will loose ur fcuking skull brain ur brain is nothing to compare with rat f*ck ur u
MY FRIEND ALEX WAS DETAINED IN POLICE STATION
I am not happy due to the question i answered at money office. Let me tell you do not play with me ok.
x4 6Yrs x6 



bill2
Baiting Guru
Joined: 10 Sep 2006
Posts: 5496
Location: Yeah who can tell me where I am?

Posted:
Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:57 pm 

second game misses the chance of a goal at all! 00 is an option with soccer!
You would have to check at least 5 years of scores to get a reliable number there I guess. Complicated So it's chance of a goal times 90 minutes, now you have to know how many goals there are on average in a game to make sure you got all options covered. Or... Simple, you have 10 games of 90 minutes that's 900 minutes. In 10 average games there are X goals so every minute has a change of X/900 
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