Most scammers probably aren't successful....

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Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 3:44 am

^^^ It used to be a law of economics, it is now considered relevant to other areas of commercial theory as well.

When I studied economics it was covered under microeconomics, now it is alsocovered in management, accounting, finance and marketing.

EDIT: sorry... sliding off track here... my apologies

Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 4:23 am

Hi Herp OP ^

By your bait history avatar, you started posting here the very week I joined 'the war'.

One must remember that it's not always a case of 'blind greed'. The Lads of course also resort to the sympathy ploy--widow dying of cancer/stroke who only has altruism at heart, etc..

They love to tug at the heartstrings. You catch more flies with honey than vinegar, as the saying goes.

Baiting Guru Joined: 17 Sep 2006 Posts: 5905

Herp wrote:

Has there ever been a full e-mail documentation made public, of an actual scam victim's communication with the lad? Not a baiter, but an ACTUAL scam victim?

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/07/09/419_scam_anatomy/

Herp wrote:

Add to that the fact that once an email adress gets passed around, these letters come in bunches, and who in the world would believe such a strange and unlikely offer when they get three or more similar offers from other people a few days later?

Once the victim is hooked on the initial scam they got dragged into they can't come to terms with the fact they have lost money. So they reason to themselves "all the others are fake but mine is the real deal."

Herp wrote:

Maybe we should do something to try harder to really affect the most competent scammers, rather than clueless beginners who are themselves tricked into paying for internet cafe time and e-mail adress lists to never earn a dime.

I am not aware of any modern 419 scammer no matter how sophisticated carefully hand picking victims, they all send out mass Emails, it is just the more organised gangs are better equipped to deal with a vic than a lad on his own in a cafe.

Although I do agree in a way that more focus should be given by baiters to the more intelligent scammers, if someone has a particularly dumb scammer they tend to bring it to the attention of the board and then a mass bait ensues. There needs to be more emphasis on straight baiting and less glamourising of trophy baiting. I have never asked for a lad to pose with a fish on his head and probably never will as those are the kind of lads who probably will trip themselves up anyway. Straight baiting is the way to keep the more intelligent lad on the hook.

Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 12:42 pm

i would think the lottery scammers probably score money the fastest-though not alot-they grab a few hundred here and there but it adds up-when i first saw a lottery letter a year back i had to look twice and really check it out jusy in case i had won something-now i win millions everyday(sigh)

Posted: Thu Jul 19, 2007 1:18 pm

How do I know that scammers on the same level that I bait actually make money? Easy. I also do some victim support stuff. I get correspondence from real, live victims, who share the emails the scammer sent.

The majority of the scams they share actually do not make me think "Gee, this scammer is extraordinarily skilled and has an incredibly professional approach that I rarely ever see in the scammers I bait."

People do lose money to the exact same scams (and scammers) I bait. Mind, I tend to straight bait, so that may skew my perspective slightly as opposed to baiters who go for trophies and funny baits. Many of these victims are seeing a 419 scam for the first time and may have a multitude of reasons to believe it and none to disbelieve.

Baiting Guru Joined: 06 May 2004 Posts: 4012

Here is another thing that should tell you that the syndicates make a significant amount of money. Look at the sheer number of fake websites that are set up. At the moment, about 30-40 fakers a day on average are added to the aa419.org database (not counting the crappy M$ email only officelive domains). Of these, I'd say about 15 are 419 related (escrow scams are also a very large group.) And these are only the ones we get to know about - the number of those that manage to slip through is unknown.

If you wanna set up a fake bank, you need to pay more than just the hosting - you need someone who will actually set it up. The syndicates do not do this themselves, they pay "faker maker" mugus who specialize on setting up websites and work for several different gangs. These guys usually charge the syndicates between 600 and 1200 Dollars per website. The price is so high because the faker makers are a) responsible for the whole thing (including domain registration, contacting hosters etc) and b) because it is, uh, illegal Laughing

, and the syndicates do not have the skills to do so. You cannot ask any website designer out there to do something like that.

There is no money-back-guarantee whatsoever if the faker is shut down quickly by us. The money is simply lost for the syndicates, and they have to pay again for setting up the next faker.

Now, if someone is willing to pay 1000 Dollar or so to invest in something that might very well not make any profit whatsoever - what does that tell you? Yeah right, obviously they think it is worth the risk. And that they are able to invest in the first place.

I think jxd makes a good point with saying:

Quote:

Therefore to decrease scams one must only lower their profits, raise their expenses, or increase their risk level.

This is what we do when we close their websites. We increase, in economic terms, their transaction costs.

Master Baiter Joined: 20 Aug 2005 Posts: 187

Quote:

On top of that, many of the lads I have encountered are university educated and can probably get jobs elsewhere.

That depends on where they are. I suspect the reason for the high number of scammers in West Africa is that there are not enough appropriate jobs for university graduates. I also suspect that a lot of 419ers (those at lower levels in the hierarchy) would prefer a steadier paycheck from a regular white collar job, if they could get one. (I'm basing this on an interview with a scammer posted a couple of years ago, where the guy sounded a little frustrated because he didn't earn very much).

Back to the original post: I'm intrigued by the idea of internet scamming as a pyramid scheme. Forget Amway, now there's Scamway!

Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 6:28 pm

What made it believable for me were the MO's I received. They looked SOOOO genuine. Luckily, I knew that it was too good to be true and after doing some research, I found this site and quit second guessing my decision to not cash the checks. Then they all went to the shredder. But there was a small part of me that wished it WERE true. Wow, the money I could have made. Shocked

I also think that what helps contribute to the scams is the present economy. So many people are in need and these scams offer a "supposedly real" way out to the victim. I can understand why some folks would take that chance that the checks are real. And then when the banks cash them......what other proof is needed (until they finally bounce.)

So even if most lads are small potatoes, if even one victim is saved from losing their money.....all that you are doing is worth it!!

Scamp

Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 6:49 pm

The tragedy is that the most vulnerable people to scams are those who are already in debt with pressure and problems, and being scammed is likely to be the last straw. Not only that, but the realisation that they have tossed away their last few hundred dollars to a scammer is devastating.

Also, from what I have seen in the pictures, many scammers are either in well paid jobs, certainly better off that the refugees they often claim to be, or earning a good living from scamming. My long term Lad claimed to be a refugee, but quickly changed his tune when our relationship fell apart and I found out he was a Nigerian living in Accra with the use of a car and living a good life.

There are 419 scammers in the UK, and the lack of jobs cannot be allowed to be an excuse or we would all be at it. It may be the reason why they do it, but it is not any justifiable excuse in my opinion.

Master Baiter Joined: 20 Aug 2005 Posts: 187

^^^^^
You are absolutely right, lack of jobs is not an excuse. (I didn't even get into the whole issue--in my last post--about university graduates not having the skills needed for the jobs that are open). But although some individuals are living well off the scamming proceeds, I suspect many of them just scrape by...ironically, staying in the game in hopes of a big payoff someday (similar to their victims' hopes, perhaps).

I found it amazing in the New Yorker article (link posted above) how the victim still believes he was really dealing with the Abacha family...

Wannabe Baiter Joined: 12 Jun 2007 Posts: 95

I guess a good analogy would be the gold rush in the American west in the mid-1800s. You had a country teaming with ambitious immigrants with no prospects or property. They hear about a few lucky people that found a fortune panning some mud in a riverbed. ...suddenly, everyone wants a shot at it and is staking claims, buying prospecting tools, etc.

Now look at Nigeria. You have a literate populace in a country with rampant unemployment. They hear about some guys similar to themselves making a fortune just sending out a few hundred bulk emails and lying to some westerners that "probably stole all the wealth from Africa" or whatever. In their minds, they justify the stealing by saying the victims "probably deserve it" anyways.

Just as was the case with 49ers during the goldrush, most 419ers are probably not successful. But the success of just a few makes thousands more want to try their hand at it. It's a low risk proposition, minimal set-up costs, minimal law enforcement. For every 1000 poorly written, pathetic looking email propositions you get, there will be at least one done well enough to convince a gullible person with enough greed or desperation to take it seriously.

Hype about a few lottery winners is enough to keep plenty of westerners playing lotteries. 419ers aren't so different.

Posted: Sun Jul 22, 2007 8:48 pm

One thing that surprised me was reading off one site that the greatest number of victims of 419 scammers are West Africans. I don't know how true that is, though I have no reason to disbelieve it, but I don't care who my baiting helps if they are victims.

The fact that they may be fellow country people of the scammer doesn't mean they deserve to be scammed. Frankly, the scammers don't care who their victims are. They have no political aim. They just want money from any victim they can find.

Baiting Guru Joined: 17 Sep 2006 Posts: 5905

^^^^^^^

I'm not sure about the figures either but you are indeed right that some Nigerians are victims of 419 scams too . In Tive's book on the Nigerian con men he states that before a scammer is 'promoted' to an international scammer they run local 419 scams on their own people to get the start up capital they need for phone lines, facsimile (etc). They feed on the desperation of their own people to make money Mad

Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:00 am

80/20 rule applies.
80% of the money is made by 20% of the scammers.

I've got one on the hook that has his coach slapping him in the back of the head on the phone with every mis-step. I keep him on the phone talking about the weather for so long he gets all pent up about having to go get another phone card. One day last week he called 5 times in 10 min because he was down to 1 min left on each card.
This guy really believes the story he is telling me. Fifteen mil, its all mine. He has (Or his boss) even tried to bait me from the same office with the same scam, he knows I'm hooked because I forward the baits on to him...I'm a faithful mark. He tells me he loves me every time I send him the funds. I'm up to 6 times now. I've even been to jail after beating the WU guy for not giving the funds back fast enough, sound effects and all. Now I can't leave the country because my bail is a flight risk.

It makes you wonder about the office hierarchy, and who gets the coffee.

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