Maths homework help needed

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Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 9:15 am

I have been asked to help calculatethe odds of a couple of football related games of chance.

the first is a game where there are 10 matches, for each you are asked to predict the possible outcome, win lose or draw. A prize is paid for 8,9 or 10 successful predictions.

What are the odds for each? I reckon the chance of getting 10 right is 1 in 3 to the power of 10, around 59,000. I may be wrong though, and am not sure about 8 or 9 correct.

Assume 50% of the money staked is paid out in prizes.

If the lucky winner gets �4052, can we estimate how many people played? As far as I can see, the results for any week aren't relavent, you still have a 1 in 3 chance of getting each result correct.

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The second game is where again you have 10 matches, and you predict the minute a goal is scored in a particular match. It doesnt matter which side scores, you predict whether there will be one or two goals, and what time out of the 90 minutes (forget injury time - bet Liverpool wish they could) they are scored.

You first pick one game out of the 10.

My friend thinks the odds of getting 1 goal right is 1 in 90, x 10 matches = 1 in 900, I'm not so sure. for a start, the odds are the same on the match you pick, whether there are 10 games or 1.

I think it's 1 in 90, times the odds of getting a goaless draw or more than 1 goal, which is unpredicatble. What do you think?

What if you ahve to predict 2 goals? (I think you multiply the odds together)

I reckon that unless you analyse results you can't predict the odds, as it depends on the result - there might not even be a goal.

Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 1:29 pm

the first

Quote:

What are the odds for each? I reckon the chance of getting 10 right is 1 in 3 to the power of 10, around 59,000. I may be wrong though, and am not sure about 8 or 9 correct.

I think:

Quote:

Assume 50% of the money staked is paid out in prizes.
If the lucky winner gets �4052, can we estimate how many people played?

Not really with just the info you give. Laughing

Is that paying for 8, 9, & 10 correct (and at what rate of return) or just on 10 correct?
How much per bet?

If, only paying on 10 correct and at �1/bet place then probably 8104, unless 2 or more winners
__________
On the second
- Don't know enough about game to try calculating that, but I suspect that a large number of variables would be involved (I suppose, since you're talking � that this isn't 'football' as known in US.) Laughing

Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:20 pm

I agree with your odds on the first game.

The payout on 8 or 9 is minimal, so I think we can discount it.

for the second game, I think the odds are 1 in 90, times 10, divided by the number of games with only one goal.

Where you have 2 get 2 goals right, it could be 1 in 90x90 x 10 / games with 2 goals.

Posted: Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:57 pm

second game misses the chance of a goal at all! 0-0 is an option with soccer!
You would have to check at least 5 years of scores to get a reliable number there I guess. Complicated Wink

So it's chance of a goal times 90 minutes, now you have to know how many goals there are on average in a game to make sure you got all options covered. Or... Simple, you have 10 games of 90 minutes that's 900 minutes. In 10 average games there are X goals so every minute has a change of X/900

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